Conflict timeline

1991–present · causes and consequences

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Events in the 1991–2026 conflictThe interactive map requires JavaScript. Below is the list of events by date.

December 1, 1991 — Referendum on Ukraine's independence. 90.3% voted for independence (54.2% in Crimea). The Soviet era ends, and the two neighbouring states begin their separate histories.

April 7, 1992 — Dispute over the Black Sea Fleet. Yeltsin declares the fleet Russian and Kravchuk Ukrainian. This is the first major dispute over state assets between the two young countries.

September 3, 1993 — Massandra Agreements. Yeltsin and Kravchuk agree to divide the Black Sea Fleet. Diplomacy defuses the conflict.

December 5, 1994 — Budapest Memorandum. Russia, the US and Britain guarantee Ukraine's security in exchange for giving up nuclear weapons.

May 31, 1997 — The 'Big Treaty'. Treaty of friendship and partnership: Moscow officially recognises Crimea as Ukrainian territory.

October 22, 2003 — Tuzla Spit conflict. Russia begins building an embankment towards Tuzla Island — the first major territorial crisis since the 'Big Treaty'.

December 1, 2004 — Orange Revolution. Moscow openly backs Yanukovych; after Yushchenko's victory relations cool sharply.

April 4, 2008 — NATO Summit in Bucharest. Putin warns that Ukraine's NATO membership is a 'direct threat' to Russia's security.

August 8, 2008 — War in Georgia. The five-day war in South Ossetia — a demonstration of readiness to use force in the post-Soviet space.

January 1, 2009 — Gas war. Gazprom halts transit through Ukraine for two weeks; Eastern Europe freezes.

April 21, 2010 — Kharkiv Agreements. The Sevastopol lease is extended to 2042 in exchange for a gas discount — a temporary thaw.

November 21, 2013 — Rejection of the EU Association Agreement. Yanukovych suspends preparations to sign the EU Association Agreement, triggering Euromaidan.

February 22, 2014 — Euromaidan. Yanukovych flees Kyiv; power changes hands in Ukraine.

March 18, 2014 — Annexation of Crimea. Putin signs the treaty annexing Crimea; the West imposes its first sanctions.

April 12, 2014 — Start of the war in Donbas. Fighting begins in eastern Ukraine.

September 5, 2014 — Minsk-1. The first ceasefire agreement; shelling continues.

February 12, 2015 — Minsk-2. A 'package of measures': a ceasefire, withdrawal of weapons, and special status for Donbas. A lasting peace remains elusive.

August 10, 2016 — 'Sabotage' in Crimea. The FSB claims to have foiled 'terrorist attacks' in Crimea; the Normandy format is put on hold.

November 25, 2018 — Kerch incident. Russia detains Ukrainian ships; martial law is introduced in Ukraine.

April 21, 2019 — Zelensky elected president. The candidate promises to end the war in Donbas.

July 27, 2020 — Ceasefire in Donbas. A ceasefire takes effect — the quietest period in years of fighting.

April 1, 2021 — Troop build-up. The first major concentration of Russian troops near Ukraine's borders.

July 12, 2021 — Putin's article on 'historical unity'. 'Russians and Ukrainians are one people.' Escalating rhetoric.

October 30, 2021 — Second troop build-up. A new build-up; Western intelligence warns of a possible invasion.

December 17, 2021 — Ultimatum to the West. Moscow demands 'security guarantees': no further NATO expansion eastward.

February 24, 2022 — Start of the invasion. Putin announces a 'special military operation'. The world is divided.

March 29, 2022 — Istanbul talks. Delegations come close to a compromise: Ukrainian neutrality in exchange for security guarantees.

April 3, 2022 — Bucha events. Talks are put on hold; the West imposes new sanctions.

May 1, 2022 — Polls: support for the 'operation'. About 71% of Russians support the actions of the Russian armed forces (VCIOM, May 2022).

May 9, 2022 — Parade speech. Putin blames the West and NATO; not a word about negotiations.

September 21, 2022 — Partial mobilisation. Russia announces mobilisation; hundreds of thousands leave the country.

October 1, 2022 — Polls: ≈41% favour negotiations. After the mobilisation, the share of those favouring talks increases (Levada).

November 9, 2022 — Withdrawal from Kherson. Russian troops withdraw from the right bank of the Dnipro.

January 1, 2023 — One year of war. About 68% of Russians favour continuing the 'operation'; about 35% favour negotiations (Levada).

March 1, 2023 — Polls: half favour negotiations. About 50% of Russians support starting peace talks.

June 24, 2023 — Wagner Group mutiny. Prigozhin's 'march of justice' — an internal political crisis.

September 1, 2023 — Positional war. Ukraine's counteroffensive fails to break through; the front stalls.

December 1, 2023 — More than half favour negotiations. About 56% of Russians favour starting peace talks (Levada, late 2023).

February 9, 2024 — Carlson interview. Putin says an agreement is possible and urges the West to accept 'the realities on the ground'.

March 17, 2024 — Russian presidential election. Putin is re-elected for another term.

June 14, 2024 — Putin's 'peace plan'. Withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from four regions plus Ukrainian neutrality as conditions for peace.

August 6, 2024 — Operation in Russia's Kursk region. Ukrainian forces enter Russian territory; 'territory swaps' enter the agenda.

November 1, 2024 — Expectations of the conflict ending. About 44% of Russians think the conflict could end in 2025.

November 19, 2024 — Escalation in autumn 2024. Long-range strikes on Russian territory; the nuclear doctrine is updated.

December 15, 2024 — Polls: ≈60% favour negotiations. By the end of 2024 most respondents favour diplomacy.

February 12, 2025 — Putin-Trump call. The first direct conversation between the leaders after a long pause — the start of dialogue.

February 18, 2025 — Talks in Riyadh. The first meeting of Russian and US delegations.

March 11, 2025 — The idea of a 30-day truce. The US and Ukraine agree on a proposal for a full ceasefire.

March 18, 2025 — Limited energy truce. Putin and Trump agree on a pause in strikes on energy infrastructure.

May 1, 2025 — Hope for a swift peace fades. About 37% of Russians still believe the conflict will end in 2025 (VCIOM).

June 15, 2025 — War fatigue. About 55% of Russians favour negotiations, and war fatigue is growing.

August 1, 2025 — Talks without a breakthrough. Dialogue continues, but fighting has not stopped.

October 1, 2025 — Talks stall. The sides meet but make no breakthrough; the front line sees no significant changes.

January 15, 2026 — New year, same positions. The negotiating process continues; hope for peace remains, but the positions are far apart.

March 1, 2026 — 2026 polls: about 48% believe peace is possible. Almost half of Russians consider it possible that the conflict will end within the next year.

May 9, 2026 — Rhetoric ahead of Victory Day. Statements: peace only 'on our terms'.

July 1, 2026 — On the eve of the target date. Active discussions are under way about a possible freeze in the conflict.